MIRNEWS.432    4 AUGUST 1998

MIR-routine:

Gradually the direct passes of the MIR-complex for Western Europe
shift to the evening hours and so the radio traffic via the VHF-channels is
increasing. For our 'information position' convenient due to the scarce use of
the geostationary Altair-2.

The crew continues the experimental program including medical, bio-chemical
and environmental experiments. They spoke about the experiment MAD (accoustic
situation in different modules), the development of newts in zero gravity and
visual observations of silver coloured clouds in the higher layers of the
earth's atmosphere. Regularly the cosmonauts undergo medical tests, mainly the
cardio- vascular system, the body mass and shin volume.

Failures:

One gyrodyne in Kvant-2 got a new interface, but was not yet included
in the gyrodyne system of the complex. The power supply is still too low due to
the bad sun angles of a couple of solar panels on the Spektr module. The
Russians hope to solve this problem during an IVA (Internal Spacewalk) inside
Spektr by the next crew. Due to the power restraints the test of a new
installed moisture absorbtion system was postponed.

Soyuz-TM28:

This ship with on board the crew for the next (26th) Main
Expedition to MIR and a politician, will be launched from Baykonur on
13.08.1998 at 0950UTC. If all goes wll S-TM28 is supposed to dock at the aft
docking port of MIR on 15.08.1998 at 1059UTC. For my region this will be
approx. 9 minutes after LOS (Loss of Signal).

The crew consists of Padalka (commander, 1st flight), Avdeyev (on board
engineer, 3rd flight) and Baturin (1st flight, a former RKK Energiya
constructor, who is making this flight for political reasons). Their call sign
is Altair, so resp. Altair 1, 2 and 3.

The stand-in crew consists of Zalyotin (cdr, rookie), Kaleri (on board
engineer, flew twice) and Kotov (cosmonaut-researcher, physician, rookie).

Speculations and rumours about the MIR crew for the 27th and Final Main Expedition:

This expedition, the last one on board MIR, will be performed between 22
February and 1 June 1999. Rumours that the French spacionaut Haignere and
Avdeyev will remain on board in that period are getting stronger.
Afanasyev, bound for a flight to MIR as commander of Soyuz-TM29 together
with Haignere and the Slovak Bella, should return with Soyuz-TM28 after a
short stay in MIR together with Padalka and Bella.
The return of Afanasyev so soon is said to have been motivated by economical
reasons. If so it is a very unlogical decision: does he eat so much?
In my opinion the presence of a skilled commander, which Afanasyev undoubtedly
is, is essential for MIR as well for the Soyuz-TM in such a crucial phase of
MIR's existence.
In the past, MIR survived periods in which 3 or more crew members were on
board, so did the Russian treasury. My experience as a MIR-observer learned me
that in really critical situations it has been the commander who acted and
solved the problems. (Malenchenko -saved a Progress-M by TORU-, Viktorenko
during power failure Euromir94, Korzun during the fire in Febr. 1997, Tsibliyev
during the collision in June 1997, Solovyov, Anatoliy, - repair EVA's-).

During a communication session via Altair-2 on 4.08.1998 Musabayev
congratulated Afanasyev with his appointment as Commander of the Cosmonaut
Detachment. Musabayev also asked Afanasyev about something which had
disappointed Afanasyev. This can be an indication that the rumours about
Afanasyev's return in early March 22 1999 are right, but it is premature to
see this as a confirmation. During this conversation the fact that Afanasyev
has to accompany 2 reasearchers (Haignere and Bella) to MIR was confirmed.

The summer of 1999 is less than a year away.....

Soon the deadline to stop pushing forward the problem of the safe decay of
the MIR-complex is there. I do not understand that nobody seems to realize that
the operation to achieve this is an enormous task, almost reaching the grade
of a mission impossible.

This task is to direct this huge almost asymmetrical porcupine like object
into the atmosphere and to do that smoothly, based on faultless ballistic,
aerodynamical and mechanical calculations. And to do that in such a way that
remnants of the station will exactly fall down over the designated area in the
Pacific (East of New Zealand or to the East of Siberia).

Many of the original constructors and technicians of those parts now forming
the MIR-complex are no longer among us or have retired.
During their working life they were so dominated by building and exploring
space stations that they forgot to anticipate the inevitable decay problem of
their objects in the future. If they had done this, they would have extended
their work with systems just aimed at the safe decay of the core modules (of
MIR and the Salyuts) and the 5 modules now docked at MIR.
The base block and the modules were well equipped to execute approach and
docking manoeuvres, but that was it. The only reserve available was the
possibility to repeat a docking operation after an eventual first docking
failure.
This happened twice: Kvant-2 on 2.12.1989 and Kristall on 6.06.1990.
Theoretically Kvant-2 and Priroda might be able to execute deorbit manoeuvres,
but their warrantee period has been expired a long time ago.
The Spektr is damaged and so unreliable.
Kvant-1 (Module-E) was brought to MIR by a tug, its remnants came down in the
bush-bush of Cameroun.
Kristall cannot manoeuvre indepedently after its extension with a
(US/Russian) Docking Compartment.

So bringing down the station in pieces is no option.

It is difficult to imagine the volume and shape of the MIR space complex. To
make this somewhat easier, I always advise people to go to a railway museum
and visit the site with the biggest locomotives and imagine that 5 of them are
linked together in the shape of the MIR complex plus some additional 'tenders',
for the 7 tons Progress-M and the Docking Compartment (about 4.5 tons) are also
there on decay day (another D-day!).
Apart from this asymmetrical shape all kinds of protruding things (antennae,
sensors, Strela cranes, masts, the VDU, external thruster, solar panels,
containers for external experiments, the big reflector on Priroda, etc.)
will play a role during reentry.
The complex has to descend to an altitude at approx. 150 KM to reach the point
where the final impulse has to be given to achieve a maximum burn up and from
there a trajectory to bring the unburnt remnants to the right position over
the so called designated area. 
The lower the complex the higher the resistance of the gass particles of the
atmosphere. These particles hit the station with a speed of 8 KM/sec.
The collisions of those particles with different parts of the station vary in
intensity, so slowing down is not equal for those different parts and the
resultant of these forces will change the angle of incidence.
Under the circumstances of the complex in this phase, correction of that angle
of incidence (by gyroscopes or thrusters for instance) is no longer possible.

So all human beings on earth especially those between 52 degrees North
Latitude and 52 degrees South Latitude will just have to wait and see.

I might be wrong, but give me the freedom to believe that it is impossible
to apply aerodynamic, ballistic and mechanical laws and formulae to make the
right calculations for matters as: the angle under which (for instance in
relation to the centre of gravity) the complex must fly during the final
impulse, how strong this impulse must be, are telecommands still possible,
how can the attitude of the complex be controlled before that impulse and what
will happen when there emerge a number of imponderabilia not foreseen by
ballistic experts, a.s.o.

Thusfar I only heard optimistic opinions about that what is going to happen.
High Russian officials emphasized that the MIR complex will decay without
problems. In fact they mean to say: don't worry and sleep well!

Just before the German invasion in the Netherlands our Premier-Minister also
said: Don't worry, sleep well! But I cruelly woke up when during that good
sleep the bridges across the rivers in my neighbourhood blown up!

Chris van den Berg, NL-9165/A-UK3202.